|
|
The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability
Pokorný, Tomáš ; Kohajda, Michael (advisor) ; Sejkora, Tomáš (referee)
Title: The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability Author: Ing. Tomáš Pokorný Supervisor: doc. JUDr. Michael Kohajda Ph.D. When performing monetary policy, the central bank can follow inflation targeting or other monetary policy rules. Following a rule, the central bank can efficiently stabilize economic development in the long run, because the changes in the mon- etary policy given by the policy rule are included in the rational expectations of agents. It might seem that the consistency of monetary policy is secured by following the policy rule only. The potential discretion, however, remains in the different preferences of the bank board members, which may completely change monetary policy decisions within the given monetary policy rule. Current leg- islation does not prevent this discretion by any means as the decision of bank board members' appointment is awarded to the Czech president exclusively, who can completely disrupt the monetary policy consistency with the previous bank board. The changes in the bank board preferences are analyzed using the GMM method on two subsamples in the period of 1996 Q3 - 2021 Q2. The empirical analysis shows that the Czech National Bank followed its constitutional duty and reacted with its policy rates to the...
|
|
|
Inflation Target Setting in Emerging Markets
Orosz, Előd ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis focuses on emerging market economies which are using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. We present an analyses of development of inflation target in emerging market economies and detected its determinants by econometric methods. We used Random Effects Interval Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis contains two main parts. First part surveys theoretical background of inflation targeting focusing on emerging markets. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation targeting. We find out that inflation target in emerging countries is affected by more factors than central banks report. Moreover we found out that price level has an inverse effect on inflation target if we examine just emerging countries, than if we examine whole group of inflation targeting countries.
|
|
|
Essays on Monetary Policy
Žáček, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee) ; Tillmann, Peter (referee) ; Bulíř, Aleš (referee)
CHARLES UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Economic Studies Essays on monetary policy Abstract Author: Mgr. Jan Žáček Advisor: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. Academic year: 2020/2021 Abstract The dissertation thesis consists of three research papers in the field of mone- tary policy. All three papers connect the same topic - monetary policy rules. The first two papers focus on monetary policy rules augmented with finan- cial variables from a theoretical point of view, while the third paper provides international empirical evidence on the monetary policy conduct taking into account financial cycle developments. In the first paper I employ a small-open economy dynamic stochastic gen- eral equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine whether the central bank's direct reaction to asset prices or credit-to-GDP ratio brings macroeconomic benefits in terms of lower volatility of inflation and output. I find that direct reaction to asset prices can be beneficial for a central bank; however, the result holds only for some domestic shocks. When facing shocks originating abroad, the usefulness of the augmented monetary policy rule deteriorates. Overall, the performance of the rule augmented with asset prices is shock-dependent, and therefore, any strict rule-like behaviour for a central bank operating within a...
|
|
|
Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach
Molnár, Vojtěch ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach Vojtěch Molnár Abstract The thesis compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model without rational expectations hypothesis. Economic agents instead form their expectations using heuristics-they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of the price level targeting model are examined-the agents form expectations either about price level or about inflation, which is ex ante not equivalent because of sequential nature of the model. In addition, several formulations of the forecasting rules are considered. According to the results, price level targeting is preferred in the case with expectations created about price level under the baseline calibration; but it is sensitive to some model parameters. Furthermore, when expectations are created about inflation, price level targeting over time loses credibility and leads to divergence of the economy. On the other hand, inflation targeting model functions stably. Therefore, while potential benefits of price level targeting have been confirmed under certain assumptions, the results suggest that inflation targeting constitutes significantly more robust choice for monetary policy.
|
|
|
Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Indicator of Central Banks
Bilková, Simona ; Bažantová, Ilona (advisor) ; Dupáková, Lenka (referee)
Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Indicator of Central Banks Abstract The diploma thesis on the subject "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Indicator of Central Banks" aims to compare the successfulness of the inflation targeting executed by the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank. Inflation targeting as a monetary- political regime was used for the first time almost 30 years ago and its merit is to influence the inflation rate based on the adjustments of short-term interest rates and the stabilization of inflation expectations. It is based on the accountability of central banks to fulfill the set target, their transparency and communication with the public, for example via publishing the macroeconomic prognoses. The first chapter of the diploma thesis aims to define the term central bank and inflation targeting. It deals with the purpose of central banks, their instruments to pursue monetary policy, independence and accountability of central banks, and determines the rule of central banks' monetary policy. Additionally, it explains medium- and long-term vertical Phillips curve and Taylor's rule. The second chapter addresses the topic of the Czech national bank and aims to describe its function and inflation targeting. It specifies its main purpose, instruments of the monetary policy and...
|
|
|
Inflation targeting and inflation perceptions: an empirical analysis
Klubíčková, Kateřina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Janský, Petr (referee)
In this thesis we examine the effect of introduction of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime on the difference between actual inflation and perceived inflation. Perceived inflation is used in the analysis in contrast with previous research, because inflation perceptions are extracted from consumer surveys conducted in individual European Union countries on the whole population sample and thereby enable us to examine the effect that the introduction of inflation targeting has across the whole population. A panel data set of 19 European Union members and 1 candidate, including 7 inflation targeters, is used in the analysis, with monthly information from the period beginning in January 1990 and ending in December 2012. Based on the analysis using fixed-effects model with specific dummy variables to capture the difference-in-differences element, we find that inflation targeters experience lower differences between actual and perceived inflation and that the difference between actual and perceived inflation decreases after the introduction of inflation targeting. Furthermore, various groups divided according to socio-economic characteristics of the consumer survey respondents tend to be affected in a different way by the introduction of inflation targeting, although to a limited extent. JEL...
|
|
|
Inflation targeting and inflation perceptions: an empirical analysis
Klubíčková, Kateřina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Janský, Petr (referee)
In this thesis I examine the effect of introduction of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime on the difference between actual inflation and perceived inflation. Perceived inflation is used in the analysis in contrast with previous research, because inflation perceptions are extracted from consumer surveys conducted in individual European Union countries on the whole population sample and thereby enable me to examine the effect that the introduction of inflation targeting has across the whole population. A panel data set of 19 European Union members and 1 candidate, including 7 inflation targeters, is used in the analysis, with monthly information from the period beginning in January 1990 and ending in December 2012. Based on the analysis using fixed-effects model with specific dummy variables to capture the difference-in-differences element, I find that inflation targeters experience lower differences between actual and perceived inflation and that the difference between actual and perceived inflation decreases after the introduction of inflation targeting. Furthermore, various groups divided according to socio-economic characteristics of the consumer survey respondents tend to be affected in a different way by the introduction of inflation targeting, although to a limited extent. JEL...
|
|
|
Inflation Target Setting in Emerging Markets
Orosz, Előd ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis focuses on emerging market economies which are using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. We present an analyses of development of inflation target in emerging market economies and detected its determinants by econometric methods. We used Random Effects Interval Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis contains two main parts. First part surveys theoretical background of inflation targeting focusing on emerging markets. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation targeting. We find out that inflation target in emerging countries is affected by more factors than central banks report. Moreover we found out that price level has an inverse effect on inflation target if we examine just emerging countries, than if we examine whole group of inflation targeting countries.
|
|
|
Output-Inflation Trade-off After a Quarter of a Century of Inflation Targeting
Kamarád, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
This thesis estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting adoption on inflation, inflation variability, output, and output variability for 25 explicit inflation targeting countries. I implement the propensity score matching methodology that takes into account the problems of non-experimental nature, such as selection bias or selection on observable, and allows me to effectively mimic properties of randomized experiment and compute unbiased treatment effect estimates. I introduce a variety of propensity score matching methods that were recently developed in the treatment effect literature, including Nearest Neighbor, Radius matching, Kernel matching, and Inverse Probability Weighting. The results indicate that both industrial and developing inflation targeting countries exhibit lower inflation levels and at the same time higher output growth than non-targeting countries. The estimates are however in most cases statistically insignificant. Moreover, it appears that both industrial and developing countries achieve combination of lower inflation variability and output variability compared to non-targeting countries. Nonetheless, majority of the estimates are again statistically insignificant. The results are to a small extent sensitive to the choice of propensity score matching method. Radius matching with tight calipers (r=0.005, r=0.001) tends to provide the most reliable estimates. Balancing properties of the models are reasonable and compared to the previous research the standardised biases are quantitatively better.
|
|
|
Impacts of CNB Monetary Interventions from 2013 to the Insolvency of the Companies
Kudějová, Barbora ; Komrska, Martin (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The diploma thesis is concerned with the intervention of the Czech National Bank in the area of the exchange market and its impact on the insolvency of companies. The majority of the studies dealing with the liquidation of companies focuses primarily on the microeconomic determinants of bankruptcy. Conversely, the empirical study carried out in this project concentrates on the macroeconomic determinants of company bankruptcy. For the purposes of this study were used the quarterly panel data of insolvencies for the 5-year-period between 2010 - 2015. The quantity of insolvencies was established for individual branches. Furthermore, the method Differences-in-Differences was employed in order to compare those branches which were assumed to prove a significant impact of the depreciation of the Czech crown in comparison to those where the exchange rate seems to be rather irrelevant. The results of the regressive analysis have confirmed the initial hypothesis of this work: from the perspective of insolvency, the intervention on the aggregate level has improved the situation of companies. Finally, the impact on individual branches was investigated in this diploma thesis. The results testified that the situation deteriorated in case of the travel agencies (as expected).
|
guest ::
